EIA - Reports related to New England’s Pipeline Constraints

EIA - Reports related to New England’s Pipeline Constraints

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Energy Information Administration, "Today in Energy, Wholesale power prices increase across the country in 2014" (1.12.15)

  • "Electricity prices were highest in the Northeast, driven by record-high natural gas prices early in the year during a very cold winter."
  • "On many days natural gas pipelines filled to capacity, leading to record-high wholesale natural gas prices at several locations. Spot natural gas prices reached $120/MMBtu in New York City (up from a 2013 high of $36/MMBtu), $78/MMBtu in Boston (up from a 2013 high of $34/MMBtu), and $34/MMBtu in Chicago (up from a 2013 high of $5/MMBtu). Spot wholesale electricity prices—which in many markets are largely determined by the spot price of gas sold to natural gas-fired generators—spiked in turn. Peak hourly spot electricity prices exceeded $518/MWh in New York City, $467/MWh in New England, and $190/MWh in Northern Illinois."
  • "In January, more than 10 million barrels of petroleum products were used to generate electricity, the highest since February 2007 and nearly three times more than the previous January. Petroleum generators are rarely called upon to produce electricity, and are usually done so in cases of extreme peak demand, for temporary grid stability, or on the rare occasion where oil is an economic substitute for extremely high-priced natural gas."

Energy Information Administration, “Today in Energy, Heating fuel expenditures rise this winter, especially for propane-heated homes” (3.12.14)

Energy Information Administration, “Today in Energy, New England Spot natural gas Prices hit Record levels this winter” (2.21.14)

  • “From January 1 to February 18, the day-ahead wholesale (spot) natural gas price at the Algonquin Citygate hub serving Boston averaged $22.53 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), according to data from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).  This price is a record high for these dates since the ICE data series began in 2001, and 50% above the same period in 2013, when cold weather drove New England prices to their highest level since 2004.”

Energy Information Administration, “Issues and Trends, High prices show stresses in New England natural gas delivery system” (2.7.14)

  • “The high winter prices in New England suggest a natural gas delivery system that is stretched significantly”
  • “So far in the winter of 2013-14, however, natural gas price spikes in New York City remained less frequent than in Boston, although on the coldest days the spot prices tend to be higher in New York City than in Boston. Natural gas pipeline expansion into the New York City area may be providing a buffer against the frequency of price spikes this winter. Encouraged by the proximity to Marcellus natural gas production and rising baseload consumption, pipeline capacity increased, and this likely contributed to the mitigation of price spikes in the New York City area.”
  • “The forward basis markets have also shown widening differentials (Figure 12). At Transco Zone 6 New York, the January 2013 forward basis settled around $3/MMBtu, while the Algonquin Citygate January 2013 forward basis reached more than $6/MMBtu. The deviation widened rapidly in 2013. The January 2014 forward basis at Transco Zone 6 New York settled at $4.89/MMBtu, but the Algonquin Citygate forward basis for the same contract settled at $17.41/MMBtu. The 2015 basis differential also remains wide, indicating the market expectation that New England's peak supply problems will continue into the winter of 2014-15.”
  • “Conclusion. Limited peak supply contributed to substantial increases in New England natural gas prices and basis on high-demand days this winter and last winter. New York City reduced spikes in prices and basis by adding pipeline capacity and by using retail demand curtailment, solutions that could help New England as well.”

Energy Information Administration, “Today in Energy, Power prices react to winter freeze and natural gas constraints” (1.21.14)

  • “Day-ahead, on-peak power prices at the Massachusetts Hub went slightly above $200 per megawatthour (MWh) during a brief cold spell in mid-December 2013 and up to $237.75/MWh during the early January freeze (see first graph above). These prices were mainly driven by corresponding movements in natural gas prices as the demand for natural gas for both power and heating led to full use of natural gas pipelines in the region and a scarcity of supply. Prices at the Algonquin Citygate trading point in Massachusetts, which normally remain around $3-$6/MMBtu during unconstrained periods, reached slightly over $30/MMBtu in mid-December 2013 and were up to $38.09/MMBtu in early January.”

Energy Information Administration, “Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook” (10.8.13)

Energy Information Administration, “Vermont Yankee nuclear plant closure in 2014 will challenge New England energy markets” (9.6.13)

Energy Information Administration, “Today in Energy, Winter natural gas price spikes in New England spur generation from other fuels” (4.12.13)

Energy Information Administration, “Short‐Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter” (1.18.13)

  • “Since November, New England has had the highest average spot natural gas prices in the nation.  Average prices at the Algonquin Citygate trading point, a widely used index for New England natural gas buyers, have been $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) higher than natural gas prices at the Henry Hub, and more than $2 per MMBtu higher than average spot price at Transco Zone 6 NY, which serves New York City and has historically traded at prices similar to those in New England (see Figure 1).”

  • Why are prices at the Algonquin Citygate trading point so high? Several factors act simultaneously to constrain natural gas deliveries into New England, and therefore raise regional prices: Natural gas from the west and south is flowing at or near the capacities of existing pipelines. LNG shipments into the Boston area and New Brunswick, Canada declined in 2012 because global market conditions have directed shipments elsewhere, and because of supply disruptions Yemen. Natural gas wellhead production from the Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP) in Nova Scotia has declined to a small fraction of its levels in previous years.”